Volume V- Bills, Takes, and Dad Mistakes

Beane & Brady: Executive game or counting cards

I was wondering last week when we were going to hear from Brandon Beane or Joe Brady about “winning the offseason.”

Normally, the Bills would have had their victory free agency press conference with either the GM or both GM/coach. Everyone would shout out their questions, and Beane would go all in on DNA, CEO approach, wanting to be in Buffalo, and being aggressive. Basically hitting every buzzword like he’s filling out a bingo card.

Instead, the Bills decided not to do that and gave an open forum to the TBN Bills Beat to ask Beane and Brady about free agency. It is an interesting strategy, as I’m sure TBN loves this because they can take an hour-long conversation and break it down into a week’s worth of stories. Content recycling at its absolute finest: reduce, reuse, regurgitate. The difference is that none of us know what the conversation consisted of because it was behind closed doors.

Normally, if you have a press conference wrap-up for a draft or free agency, there doesn’t seem to be a time limit. The problem with this strategy of stretching content over a week is that it can become dated, and other outlets will probably have written about the same topics. The way they did it with just an audience from TBN, they can run multiple exclusives and keep a bunch of stories in the can without worrying about being scooped. It’s basically content meal-prepping.

With that said…why did the Bills do this?

Were they trying to kiss TBN’s ass by throwing them a bone? I wrote last week how Beane and Brady have “go away heat” with a segment of the fan base, and if there’s one way to get everyone on your side, it’s getting in good with the people who shape narratives and have the biggest microphones. Control the message, control the mood.

Interestingly enough, Brandon Beane did reach out to Sal Maiorana from the Rochester D&C about coming in to get his own audience with him. Sal detailed it in a very interesting conversation on his podcast. The podcast was very good, with some solid X’s and O’s about how the Bills view the design of the defense. They already had TBN down there, so they might as well get the other newspaper involved too. Again, not faulting either outlet for doing this. If someone offers you a beer, you don’t ask for a water.

With that said…what about The Athletic? What about the TV local stations? What about NY Upstate? WGR? AP? Talking Buffalo?

Obviously, as of this writing, things could be in motion, and maybe a later date is set where another outlet gets their exclusive. Draft season is coming up, so maybe Beane and Brady will do something on how they failed or succeeded in moving up in the draft, like they talked about with the Crosby/Hendrickson conversations. Nothing like reliving “almosts” like they’re exes you still stalk on Instagram.

It’s just interesting how, instead of the Bills doing a presser where all fans can watch or read about it, they gave it to two outlets behind a paywall. Heck, nothing on One Bills Live or their own stream. It felt like they may have been giving the outlets what they want instead of the fans.

Maybe it is good business. Maybe it’s good content. Maybe it’s good networking. Maybe it’s annoying other outlets.

Maybe it’s all five.

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Goalie roulette

The Buffalo Sabres suddenly have a good problem and it’s one that could define whether their long-awaited playoff run is a quick exit or something real. As someone who watched Hasek and Miller play in the playoffs for years with Lindy Ruff at the helm, there was never a question -outside of injury or maybe faking one shhhh- about who should be the main goalie for the Sabres when the playoffs hit. Right now the vibes are high, but this to me is the biggest question for the playoffs. Do you keep alternating or do ride the hot hang.

If you’re picking a traditional “Game 1 starter,” Luukkonen still feels like the default.

He’s been the steadier, volume goalie all season:

• 17–8–2 record

• 2.54 GAA

• .911 save percentage

After a dreadful game against Tampa Bay, he has given up 3 goals in his last 3 games,

There’s also a psychological factor: Luukkonen has been the guy in Buffalo’s rebuild and been here for years. Teammates are used to him. Maybe it is cliche, but in a playoff environment, that familiarity matters. But here’s the issue: he hasn’t clearly separated himself. If this were purely a numbers argument, Lyon might actually have the edge.

His 2025–26 line:

• 20–8–4 record

• 2.65 GAA

• .911 save percentage

• 2 shutouts

That save percentage gap (.911vs .911) is about as close as Florida in the 2000 election. Yet, Lyon been hot since the end of January when UPL went down with an injury. Before last night’s game, he had an 8–2 run with a .930 SV% since late January. In other words, Lyon hasn’t just been “good for a backup”….he’s been arguably better. Here’s where it gets interesting.

Buffalo has been using a near-perfect platoon with alternating starts, keeping both goalies fresh, and allowing the Sabres blue liners to constantly pinch in and let them handle odd man rushes.

And most importantly…it’s working. It is also helps that your backbone of the team is a blueline that doesn’t give up a lot of high percentage shots. You also have a more condensed schedule in the playoffs which could help when it comes to giving goalies a breather.

Yet, Let’s be honest,..this is where tradition and the Sabres playoff memories pushes back. We know the historical goalie performances of Hasek and Miler in Buffalo and not sharing the crease with Marty Biron and Jonas Enroth. NHL historically favors a clear No. 1 goalie for the playoffs. And normally, if you get two goalies starting at different parts of a series, it usually happens when one of your goalies fall on their faces. With a platoon approach, you could end up overthinking and instead of riding one goalie, if they falter, you know in your mind you have a good backup. Problem is could shorting the leash backfire and ruin a goalie’s confidence?

This actually happened to Lindy Ruff in Dallas. During a 109 point regular season, Ruff transitioned his regular-season alternating rotation into a performance-based rotation between Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi. For the regular season, Lehtonen had 39 starts while Niemi had 42 starts. They both shared a .906 and .905 save percentage. Then in the playoffs, it fell apart. The Stars did make it to the 2nd round, but the goalie rotation felt like a panic attack.

First Round (vs. Minnesota Wild): Kari Lehtonen started the first three games, leading the Stars to a 2–1 series lead. After a Game 3 loss, Ruff switched to Antti Niemi for Games 4 and 5. Lehtonen returned for Game 6 to close out the series.

Second Round (vs. St. Louis Blues): Lehtonen started the series, but after being pulled in Game 2, Niemi started Game 3. The Stars lost both those games, and Ruff eventually returned to Lehtonen for the remainder of the series where the lost in 7.

Lehtonen finished the postseason with a .899 save percentage and Niemi with an .865. Not great, Bob.

If the playoffs started tomorrow: I don’t know who I would go with. I’d say UPL because of familiarity, but just keep the alternating thing going UNLESS someone gets super hot. Like fucking Hasek hot.

Depending on what side of the glass you are on, it could be a goalie controversy or it could be a goalie advantage. In the end, we are just gonna have to let the playoffs decide.

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Overplaying your hand?

Now that wide receivers have been on the move across the league, it’s human nature to look back at the DJ Moore trade and wonder if there was a better deal to be had. The newest case study: Jaylen Waddle.

In short, I like Waddle a little more. He’s entering year five, while Moore is going into year eight. A first- and third-round pick for Waddle shouldn’t shock anyone—that was reportedly the asking price at the deadline, and nobody seemed outraged by it. The guy is a stud. If you loved the Stefon Diggs deal in 2020, you probably shouldn’t clutch your pearls over this.

If you’re a box score scout like me, their numbers are pretty similar. Waddle has three 1,000-yard seasons, Moore has four. Both started hot, but production has dipped over the last two years. Waddle’s decline feels tied to injuries, Tyreek Hill slowing down, and a stagnant Dolphins offense. Moore’s issues seem more about QB inconsistency and cycling through offensive systems.

Where Moore deserves real credit is Carolina. He produced with a revolving door at quarterback and without a true WR1 next to him. Waddle has had better QB play and Hill drawing coverage.

The bigger question: how many real suitors were there for Moore?

It felt like the Bears had to trade him because of the cap. Brandon Beane said multiple teams were involved—I don’t buy that at face value. I’d need to hear it from agents or the Bears themselves. Beane has done that in the past with the help of some Bills beat guys, specifically when he tried to act like Antonio Brown wasn’t close to coming here, but Terry Pegula blew up his spot at the owner’s meeting in 2019 when he said AB didnt want to be a Bill.

The main point:

The Bears had to trade Moore.
The Dolphins didn’t have to trade Waddle.

That matters.

I’m not pounding the table either way. I like Moore. I like Waddle a little more. But I get the logic behind the move. I just wish we knew if the Bills actually outbid the field or were bidding against themselves and wanted to overpay because Joe Brady wanted a player he was familiar with.

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Bust

I used to be a pretty big jersey guy. From about 2002–2012, I probably had over 10–12 Bills jerseys and 3–4 Sabres jerseys. The majority of those jerseys have been given away, with me keeping a Josh Allen (groomsmen gift), Alex Tuch (drunk purchase) jersey and a Jack Eichel 2017 Winter classic jersey in NYC. My plan for thoses 3 jerseys are to frame them whenever I get a man cave. Tuch and Allen I haven’t worn because of size and worries about spilling stains on them. While Jack Eichel’s jersey has ketchup stains on the sleeves. Aside from my girth and not using a napkin correcting, I feel dumb wearing them now.

To say these jerseys were a waste of money would be an understatement.

I just never wore them enough. I couldn’t really wear them to work. I couldn’t wear them on a date. The only time I could ever wear one was if I was watching the game at a bar or at home. Then, if you are superstitious and wear a jersey during a game that is heartbreaking or just awful, that jersey gets buried until next season or beyond. Do you hang them or fold them? Do you iron them? The confusion alone sets in.

But to be honest, all of my jerseys have been cursed and consisted of the following:

Rhett Warrener red 3rd jersey – My first-ever jersey purchase. Fun story! I had come back from NY to visit family in March of 2003, and I went to a Sabres/Tampa Bay game, which was the first “official” game of Tom Golisano owning the team. I felt the time was right to buy a jersey. At the first intermission, I went to a jersey stand on the 300 level, and the picks were as follows: Miroslav Satan, Stu Barnes, Rob Ray, and Rhett Warrener. Barnes and Ray had just been traded, and their jerseys were on sale. I was never a Ray fan, but Stu was enticing—two-way player, captain, everyone liked him.

Yet, he had just been traded, and at the time I didn’t want a jersey of someone who had already been dealt. I always liked Satan, but he had been rumored to be traded for years, and I couldn’t take the chance. So there’s Rhett Warrener, a veteran, meat-and-potatoes, boring defenseman who no one had a bad thing to say about. I don’t even think you could find some WGR caller in Angola to complain about him. After going back and forth for about 10 minutes, I pulled the trigger on Warrener.

It felt right because there was no way he was getting traded.

Fast forward to July 1, 2003. I’m back in Buffalo visiting family, listening to WGR in the car, and Brad Riter announces: “Breaking news: Rhett Warrener has been traded for Chris Drury.” There weren’t memes or Twitter at the time, but I assume I reacted like the Michael Scott “nooooo” meme. I don’t think I wore the jersey once after that. And with that…I felt cursed.

Eric Moulds – Favorite Bill during the drought, but I got this jersey around 2004 when he was past his prime, and he was traded the next year.

Willis McGahee – Got him when he was drafted because he was a star coming out of college. Also loved the #2 jersey in college. By year three, he hated Buffalo and couldn’t wait to get traded.

Nate Clements – Got it in 2006 after the Bills introduced the 60s retro uniforms. The Bills had just franchise-tagged him, and I felt there was no way he was leaving. Problem was, it was only for one season the franchise tag and he left via free agency to the 49ers

Thomas Vanek – 2007 Sabres retro third jersey. I debated for days while staring at Sabres.com checkout cart on my computer. I wanted a Drury or Briere jersey but was scared they’d leave (thanks, Warrener PTSD) and my trepidation proved to be correct. I went with Vanek. Great choice…except the nameplate is crooked. Chris Ostrander pointed it out when I posted the jersey on social media, and now I can’t unsee it and I’m too lazy to fix it.

Tyler Myers – Got this after he won Rookie of the Year. Felt like a safe bet. It was also the 3rd 40th anniversary jersey which to me is the best jersey the Sabres have ever had. He regressed and was traded two years later. Also found out the jersey was fake after posting it online…No thanks to Chris Ostrander, seriously, dude, stop ruining my jersey dreams! I was in denial and went to the person who bought this for me as a gift and they sent the website they bought it at and yes…it was a knockoff. Incredible.

Marshawn Lynch – Got it in 2007. Loved the player. Relationship with Buffalo? Not great. Traded after year four.

Paul Posluszny – One of the many Poz jerseys that the city of Buffalo purchased and still wear to this day. Thought he’d be the next Shane Conlan. He was…mid.

Marcell Dareus – Felt like a long-term investment. It was until he got paid and then Rex Ryan ruined him.

Stevie Johnson – One of my favorite players. Got it around 2012. He didn’t last long as Doug Marrone didn’t like him and he was traded after the 2013 season.

LeSean McCoy – Bought in 2015 at the Nike store in Manhattan. It was either him or Sammy Watkins. They didn’t have my size in Watkins, so I got McCoy even though I was worried. Luckily, McDermott and Beane hated him and traded him in August of 2017. Finally, a jersey win.

Jack Eichel – Got the Winter Classic jersey for Christmas. Then he changed his number 6 months again. Did Danhausen curse me??

Once again…cursed.

Which leads me to this: jersey numbers are for everyone!

The NFL opened Pandora’s box by allowing players to wear more flexible numbers. Some look cool. Some don’t. The worst part is when you buy a jersey and the player changes their number a few years later. With more numbers available and players leaving teams to open those jersey numbers, it allows more frequent changes. Greg Rousseau is the latest example as he’s going back to #15 which he wore in college. So..get your Chris Hogan jersey out and duct tape his name on the back. From C.J. Spiller to Stephon Gilmore to Kaiir Elam, it feels like every other Bills first-round pick eventually changes numbers.

Buying a jersey now is Russian roulette—not about performance, but whether they’re waiting for their number to free up.

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Stathead of the Week

DJ Moore’s WR rankings since entering the league in 2018:

Receptions: 6th (608)
Yards: 6th (8,213)
TDs: 17th (41)
Games Started: 1st (124)

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Dad Shots

-A debate I saw on social media: is it good for the Bills to share so many details about trades that almost happened? Obviously, for content bros, websites, and talk shows, it’s fantastic. For fans? It can work—but it can’t be overused. As Yoda once said, “There is no try…only do.” You can’t throw every wrestler through a table in a match. Eventually, it loses its luster and just leads to apathy. If everything is “almost,” then nothing actually is. Brandon Beane has repeatedly said how aggressive he is and that he needs people to pull the phone away from him like he’s a binge drinker doing a 10th shot of Crown at McMonkey’s. These type of stories leads to what I think Bills PR/Beane want to create: A gunslinger GM. It is interesting how, during the Sean McDermott era, leaks basically never happened because he ran such a tight ship. I heard that McDermott had a meeting with everyone when he was hired that if you leaked anything to the press, you would be fired. There didn’t seem to be “what could have been” stories unless it came from Ty Dunne or Tim Graham which was more geared towards digging for sources. Now, there have been more stories since the deadline than in the previous years combined with everyone being on the record in a positive way. It feels like the Bills suddenly went from Fort Knox to open mic night.

-I am not fond of bringing back Dawson Knox. Frankly, him getting an $8–9 million cap hit for the next three years as a TE2 who played 55% of the snaps last year seems like an overpay and preferential treatment for a guy the organization has always had a crush on. I just feel like it should have been either him or Kincaid…not both. This feels like ordering two entrées when you only needed one and you are mad because you cant make up your mind which one you want to eat first.

-The “Edge Express” is about to compete with the “WR Train” for draft season hype/propaganda. Maybe I’m in the minority, but why do the Bills need an edge rusher? They have Rousseau, Hoecht, Chubb, and that one guy Pat Moran overhyped to death during training camp last year (Javon Solomon). You really only need two on the field and a backup or two. If anything, I think they need inside linebacker help more. I’m not sold on Terrel Bernard because of injury concerns, and Dorian Williams’ contract is up next year and he’s not very good. If this 3–4 hybrid, possibly Ryan Bros.–type defense is what they’re going for, you need an ILB who can cook. You need a presence—like a Bart Scott-type guy if we’re going back to Jim Leonhard vibes. The Bills haven’t drafted a linebacker in the first two rounds since 2018. Like the Sith lord and his apprentice, there always has to be 2. The Bills have either had Edmunds/Milano or Milano/Bernard. I’d keep an eye on that. Frankly, a linebacker probably starts Day 1, while another edge rusher just joins the never-ending rotation.

-I don’t give a fuck about the NCAA Tournament.

-There are a number of reasons why I can’t stand Pat Moran, but he gets a gold star for recommending The Pitt. I’ve never watched ER, Grey’s Anatomy, Chicago Hope, or NYPD Blue. So this was my first step into that genre. Let me tell you—he was right. The show is intense as hell. It’s basically 24 set in an ER, where every hour is one episode. You can’t even go to the bathroom without missing something. It makes you want to cry, scream, and donate your salary to healthcare workers.

-Our son has recently discovered that you can draw on walls and floors. Guess our landlord will be keeping the deposit. Honestly, he earned it.

-I am so over seeing Brandon Beane and Joe Brady doing a selfie tour at every Buffalo event. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a photo of Lindy Ruff and Jarmo together. No one likes the annoying new couple constantly posting photos when you are kind of annoyed at both of them and that’s the vibe right now. Who do they think they are, the Bills Bro Beat at the NFL owners meeting?

-I think CM Punk or Cody Rhodes needs to turn heel. The time is now. Strike while the merch is still hot.

-I’d roll with Stanley and Kesserling as my #3 D-pair for the playoffs.

-I always find it funny how fans get upset about the NFL expanding game days—but they’ll still watch them. That’ll show the league! On a serious note, if they go to 18 games, they should add another AFC vs. NFC matchup with close-proximity or interstate rivals. Call it Rivalry Weekend. These are some ideas:

• Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions
• New York Jets vs New York Giants
• Baltimore Ravens vs Washington Commanders
• Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles
• Cleveland Browns vs Green Bay Packers
• Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons
• Chicago Bears vs Indianapolis Colts
• Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns
• Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans
• San Francisco 49ers vs Las Vegas Raiders
• Los Angeles Rams vs Los Angeles Chargers
• Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos

-The Bachelor franchise is completely fucked. How did no one do their due diligence to find videos of the Bachelorette beating up that guy? These shows usually dig up tweets from 2009, but this slipped through? Incredible scouting department that resembles Brandon Beane’s 2nd round picks…I’ll be here all week, folks.

-I’m still trying to figure out what to do with X and Bluesky. At first, I made X my place to shit-talk how awful the government is and reply to terrible influencers with vulgar obscenities, which I loved. Bluesky was for family pics and sports. I hate X because the owner is a hateful asshole who spreads misinformation, but there’s still more information there. Bluesky is fine, but it just needs more “name-brand” accounts. Also, I’ll admit it in a shallow way…but I want more followers on Bluesky before fully jumping ship. Restarting writing has complicated that a bit since I want to grow this Substack. Anyways, the world would be a better place if Elon Musk sold X and fell into a volcano.

-Does anyone care about The Mandalorian movie? It feels like it’s been way too long since the show aired, and people have moved on. The Star Wars universe is a complete mess. It’s like they’re throwing darts blindfolded at this point.

-so people lost their jobs based on social media comments about Charlie Kirk after he was murdered, but the president can celebrate Bob Mueller’s death. Just an incredible hypocritical timeline we live in.

-Beer of the week: Devil You know: KCBC • American IPA • 7.0% // Striking flavors of pithy grapefruit, tropical pineapple, white grape, and resinous pine. Completely smashed with our hand-selected Centennial, Nelson Sauvin, and Chinook hops. Bold and balanced. Crisp and clean. You can order it and get it shipped!

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If you skimmed through this and forgot what you read, then go back and reread it. If you read everything and digested it, I thank you! Please share and tell a friend about this Substack and subscribe. Also, you can listen to me on the Talking Buffalo podcast which will be dropped Monday the 23rd.